Global Trends 2020 - Pete Garcia - http://www.omegaletter.com/articles/articles.asp?ArticleID=8067
Not long ago, my boss provided a select group of people the chance to read excerpts from Ian Bremmer’s Time Magazine article based off his book, entitled Superpower: Three Choices for America’s Role in the World. We weren’t required to provide feedback, but were offered the opportunity to do so if we so chose. Of course this topic is right up my alley, so I chose.
In Mr. Bremmer’s estimation, there were really only three options left for the United States, and we must decide which of the three the collective we, need to choose if we want to retain the title, superpower. So boiling down Mr. Bremmer’s three estimations into bite-sized reading, we ultimately come down to these three options, plus adding the bottom line pros and cons of each position.
1. Indispensable America-“Despite the reversals of the past decade, some still argue that the U.S. remains the world’s indispensable leader, able to do things no other nation can…They insist that the U.S. will be safer only if others live in peace, and that it will be prosperous only if other countries produce middle classes that can afford to buy the products we make. Americans can be secure only in a world where democracy, rule of law, access to information, freedom of speech and human rights are universally recognized, they say, because these values create lasting strength, security and wealth in the societies that establish and protect them. And only America, they assert, has the power and the will to bring that world about–and the responsibility to do it.”
Pro-Threats today are global in nature, we cannot afford an ‘isolationist’ mentality.
Con-Recent history is littered with America’s failed attempt at exporting democracy to other nations not ready to exercise it.
2. Moneyball America-“Then there are those who support what I call Moneyball America, an idea inspired by author Michael Lewis’ account of how baseball’s Oakland A’s used a rigorous, hyper rational approach to build a winning team on the cheap. Moneyballers would redefine U.S. foreign policy to maximize return on the taxpayers’ investment. The trick is to set intelligent priorities based on America’s strengths and limitations.”
Pro-Taxpayers get biggest bang for their buck by safeguarding our interests. US does not get sucked needlessly into global situations it cannot guarantee success in.
Con-American’s sacrifice their values for results.
3. Independent America-“It’s not simply that America can no longer police the world. It’s that it has no right to force those who disagree with us to see things our way.”
Pro-Let other nations decide their own fate. Reduces costly (time/lives/money) US entanglement in global affairs.
Con-US has limited involvement in global affairs, thus cannot shape or be party to outcomes.
And while from Mr. Bremmer’s estimation, the Independent America seems the most attractive option, I believe he left off a fourth, real possibility…that there is a Non-Existent America.
In response to my boss’s request for voluntary feedback, I offered up the following. Caveat: It remains virtually intact, I edited a couple of places and added a little more detail here, than I could in the original email.
“I think it is interesting, but all three options fail to address the underlying issues that make them all inadequate to sustain America's trajectory as the global superpower into the 21st century. I apologize for the length of my response, but I've spent a lot of time studying this topic. I also don't want to seem like a 'glass half empty' person, but I am a realist, and just see things for the way they are, or the potential they could be.
The National Intelligence Councils estimations (Global Trends) for 2030 predict a decline in US superpower status by 2030, but caveat that as a 'soft landing'. Given their previous dismal track record of predictions, I don't think it will be soft at all. Although I disagree with this (Article), I tend to think it rings closer to the truth, than what the NIC offered up in their own version of the year 2030.
But in regards to the Ian Bremmer article, we can't fix a dysfunctional nation, without first addressing these issues.
At $18 T (est), it is mathematically impossible for the US to ever pay down or pay of its debts. If there are 315 M Americans, and 92M are not even in the workforce, or are paying into the current system, there are not enough American taxpayers contributing to even make a dent on what we owe. This does not include the $100T in unfunded liabilities that are promised to social security, retirements, welfare, etc.
Granted, a lot of that debt is to ourselves, or rather, our children and grandchildren, but it is mathematically impossible for us to even pay down the interest on the debt. This will significantly drive and/or limit how much the US gets involved with foreign affairs. Former JCOS chairman Admiral Mullen's when asked, stated that our debt was the greatest threat to our national security. (Link)
2. Currency insolvency.
(CNSNews.com) – “According to the Daily Treasury Statement for Wednesday, April 22, which was published by the U.S. Treasury on Thursday, April 23, that portion of the federal debt that is subject to a legal limit set by Congress closed the day at $18,112,975,000,000-for the 40th day in a row. $18,112,975,000,000 is about $25 million below the current legal debt limit of $18,113,000,080,959.35. Table III-C on the Daily Treasury Statement for April 22 shows that the federal debt subject to the legal limit began April at $18,112,975,000,000, began the day of April 22 at $18,112,975,000,000 and closed the day of April 22 at $18,112,975,000,000." (Link)
The fact that we can freeze debt for periods of time as if it doesn't exist to me, means that this is charade on a grand scale. I think the coming Trans Pacific Trade (TPT) plan is a way to preemptively establish some permanent or alternative system that will supersede the collapse of the currency itself. When I say collapse, I mean, our current fiat paper dollar system based on debt, will change to something else. Maybe some type of digital currency or bitcoin. But at this point, it has to change because it is unrecoverable. Not just our debt, but almost every industrialized nation has varying stages of debt issues. It could be that we just hit the reset button for everyone if they go along with this currency restructuring. Whatever happens, the US Dollar will lose its global reserve status.
3. Cultural Chaos.
The more the US seeks to redefine itself in the culture war, the more it has to change the Constitution to do so. Our nation is governed by the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, and when we poke enough holes in it, it will not sustain the system we currently have and we will by necessity, become something different. No longer a Constitutional Republic, but more aligned to a pure democracy, and in democracies, the 'mob' rules. President James Madison once said "Democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts and murders itself. There was never a democracy that did not commit suicide."
So if the culture increasingly embraces things and ideologies that destroy the building block of civilizations (i.e...the family unit), the less likely our nation will survive as it is. Thus far, we have transitioned from "These" United States, to "The United States", and are seemingly moving to "the" State (s).
Most Favored Nation status moved from Japan, to Taiwan, to now China, all the while America's manufacturing capabilities have atrophied. As long as other nations can produce products cheaper than we can, I think we will lose the manufacturing race. I think this Trans Pacific Trade plan that is currently remaining purposely hidden from the American public because of the radical nature of its restructuring will cause. Nobody but a handful of signers and writers have actually read what it contains, so it's a bit of speculation at the moment, but it could fundamentally transform our economy forever. Could manufacturing be brought back to the US? It could, but it would be very costly, (American's expect more pay than Third World Countries), and it would take a vast amount of time and energy to rebuild the infrastructure. Significance is that the US no longer has the ability to win wars by out producing our enemies, such as was the case in WWII. The systems we have now are too complex and too expensive to simply mass produce.
True, we are a nation of immigrants, but immigrants used to come here to assimilate. Now, we just have massive enclaves of unassimilated immigrants who seek to change our culture to fit theirs. Large sections of Detroit, Minneapolis, Nashville, Dallas, San Antonio, Houston, etc. are divided into little subsections of (name the nation) communities. The biggest impact from this is that both a civic sense of loyalty and responsibility to America and our way of life, are lost by increasingly larger segments of our societies.
6. Military Affairs.
The top five will greatly influence the future of military conflicts the US chooses to participate in. Historically speaking, when a nation was suffering from internal conflict, the leader/dictator /king/despot/etc. chose some foreign intervention (micro-militarism) to distract the people with, or maybe to divert their anger towards. That may be some future motivation for us as we begin the slow descent into whatever state we end up becoming. But the threats have changed, and our intelligent enemies know better than to try and go toe to toe with us. They will seek conflicts to their advantage that play on our weaknesses, and hit us with things like EMPs, domestic terrorism, cyber terrorism, and CBRNE events.
On a side note: The theory of generational dynamics, posits that every 80 years (+/- 10 years), a nation goes through a major, cataclysmic event that fundamentally changes a nation for better or worse. From 1776, + 80 years, we get the Civil War. Plus 80 years, we get WWII. Plus 80 years, we get whatever is coming in 2020. We can already see the storm clouds forming around the world;
-An aggressive China (aging population, high male to female ratio, unstable economy, expanding military agendas)
-An aggressive Russia (shrinking population, unstable economy, expanding military agenda)
-Islamic radicalism expansion causing destabilization across the Middle East governments, complete with a budding nuclear arms race between Shia and Sunni
-Weakening American dominance
-Weak European dominance
-Growing economic disparities between the haves, and have not's (nations and individuals)
-Global economic interconnectedness means tiny nations, have the potential to drag other nations down with them (i.e...PIIGS)
I believe the stage is set for whatever is coming. When it comes, it will turn the world on its head. That is not even including the potentials for pandemics, catastrophic natural events, or other unforeseen events. One thing I am certain, is that the new "arms race" for the 21st century, will not be for specific weapons, but for Artificial Intelligence. Whoever cracks this first, as digitally connected as this world is, will have the potential to dominate everything.”
Over the last four years, I’ve offered up my own assessments of global trends I see coming down the road that have, more or less, played out. Now, that is NOT because I am smarter or more prophetic than anyone else. In fact, it’s probably in spite of me. But my track record is good only because I filter everything through the lens of the Prophetic Bible. IOW, we worship a God who exists outside of time and space, and is not bound by it, therefore, declares the ‘end from the beginning’ (Isaiah 46:9-10). Anytime I get off into my own speculations, I tend to get it wrong. If I stick with the broad view the Bible presents as the geo-political picture of the last days, I get it right. So here are the Global trends that the Bible states, will come to pass in the last days. In fact, I would venture to say, the US today, is very unrecognizable to the US of September 10th, 2001. Think about that for a second. The US five years from now, will largely be unrecognizable from even today’s standards if we are even still here;
The number one driving issue will be to governing by crises. Crisis events will drive radical changes to our existing geo-political order.
1. World continues to embrace globalization; (Rev 13:7)
2. World converts to a single world currency, most likely because the global reserve currency (i.e.…the US Dollar) collapses; (Rev 13:16-18)
3. World moves toward a single world religion; (Rev 13:4, 8, 15)
4. Global animosity towards the nation of Israel reaches a fever pitch; (Zech. 12:2-3, 14:1-2, Matt. 24:15-22, Rev. 12, 16:12-16)
5. Apostatizing Christianity (Matt. 24:4, 11, 24; 2 Peter 2-3; 2 Tim. 3:1-9; Jude; Rev. 3:14-18; Rev. 13, 17)
6. Single world leader emerges (Daniel 8:23-25, 9:27, 11:35-45, Rev. 6:1-2, 13)
7. Continued destabilization of natural order through. I would bookmark the Extinction Protocol page if I were you.
The good news is, that if you’re a blood-bought, redeemed believer of the one and only, true God through Jesus Christ, then that means our redemption from this sin stained world, is almost ready. The bad news is, if you’re not, then you will endure what Jesus Himself called, the worse period of tribulation (Matt. 24:21) the world has ever seen. If you don’t want to go through this time, then you simply need to read here as a start (Romans 10:9-10), to see how you can change your physical and eternal destiny.
Now when these things begin to happen, look up and lift up your heads, because your redemption draws near. Luke 21:28